Graham County vs. Arizona Comparative Trends Analysis: Population Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Graham County: 2022 Population = 38,779 2022 Percent of State = 0.53% Arizona: 2022 Population = 7,359,197 2022 Percent of U.S. = 2.21% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of Graham County with comparisons to Arizona and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing Graham County vs. Arizona's population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 traces Graham County's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Graham County's population rose from 16,200 in 1969 to 38,779 in 2022, for a net gain of 22,579, or 139.38%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 traces Arizona's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Arizona's population rose from 1,737,000 in 1969 to 7,359,197 in 2022, for a net gain of 5,622,197, or 323.67%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 portrays Graham County's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Arizona, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Graham County's overall population growth was 139.38% over 1969-2022 trailed Arizona's increase of 323.67%, and outpaced the United States' increase of 65.57%. Population as a Percent of the Arizona Total: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of highlighting the population growth of Graham County is to compare its individual percentage contributions to Arizona's statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than Arizona's population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1969, Graham County's population totaled 0.93% of Arizona's population, while in 2022 it totaled 0.53% thereby yielding a -0.41% share-shift.
Graham County Population: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 highlights the short-run pattern of Graham County's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Graham County's population grew at an annual rate of 1.68% over 1970-2022. The county recorded its highest growth in 1980 (7.85%) and recorded its lowest growth in 1978 (-1.76%). In 2022, Graham County's population declined by -0.26% Graham County Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again illustrates the annual percent change in Graham County's population since 1970, but this time they are displayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, Graham County's annual population growth rate averaged 2.79%. It averaged 2.15% in the 1980s, 2.42% throughout the 1990s, 1.23% throughout the 2000s, 0.22% during the 2010s, 0.40% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Graham County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Arizona and the nation. As the chart reveals, Graham County's average annual population growth fell below Arizona's average during the 1970s (2.79% vs. 4.28%), recorded under Arizona's average in the 1980s (2.15% vs. 3.22%), lagged Arizona's average throughout the 1990s (2.42% vs. 3.33%), recorded under Arizona's average during the 2000s (1.23% vs. 2.36%), fell below Arizona's average throughout the 2010s (0.22% vs. 1.09%), and lagged Arizona's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (0.40% vs. 1.34%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, Graham County topped the nation during the 1970s (2.79% vs. 1.10%), registered above the nation over the 1980s (2.15% vs. 0.95%), outpaced the nation during the 1990s (2.42% vs. 1.23%), surpassed the nation in the 2000s (1.23% vs. 0.95%), fell under the nation over the 2010s (0.22% vs. 0.74%), and topped the nation over 2020-2022 (0.40% vs. 0.31%).
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