Maricopa County vs. Arizona Comparative Trends Analysis: Population Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Maricopa County: 2022 Population = 4,551,524 2022 Percent of State = 61.85% Arizona: 2022 Population = 7,359,197 2022 Percent of U.S. = 2.21% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of Maricopa County with comparisons to Arizona and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing Maricopa County vs. Arizona's population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 traces Maricopa County's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Maricopa County's population rose from 946,000 in 1969 to 4,551,524 in 2022, for a net gain of 3,605,524, or 381.13%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 tracks Arizona's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Arizona's population rose from 1,737,000 in 1969 to 7,359,197 in 2022, for a net gain of 5,622,197, or 323.67%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 portrays Maricopa County's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Arizona, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Maricopa County's overall population growth was 381.13% over 1969-2022 outpaced Arizona's increase of 323.67%, and topped the United States' increase of 65.57%. Population as a Percent of the Arizona Total: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of comparing the population growth of Maricopa County is to trace its individual percentage contributions to Arizona's statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than Arizona's population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1969, Maricopa County's population totaled 54.46% of Arizona's population, while in 2022 it totaled 61.85% thereby yielding a +7.39% share-shift.
Maricopa County Population: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 displays the short-run pattern of Maricopa County's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Maricopa County's population grew at an annual rate of 3.02% over 1970-2022. The county recorded its highest growth in 1973 (6.40%) and posted its lowest growth in 2010 (0.48%). In 2022, Maricopa County's population grew by 1.26% Maricopa County Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again traces the annual percent change in Maricopa County's population since 1970, but this time they are displayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, Maricopa County's annual population growth rate averaged 4.42%. It averaged 3.74% during the 1980s, 3.64% in the 1990s, 2.39% during the 2000s, 1.38% in the 2010s, 1.41% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Maricopa County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Arizona and the nation. As the chart reveals, Maricopa County's average annual population growth outpaced Arizona's average throughout the 1970s (4.42% vs. 4.28%), outpaced Arizona's average throughout the 1980s (3.74% vs. 3.22%), outpaced Arizona's average throughout the 1990s (3.64% vs. 3.33%), led Arizona's average in the 2000s (2.39% vs. 2.36%), registered above Arizona's average in the 2010s (1.38% vs. 1.09%), and outgained Arizona's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (1.41% vs. 1.34%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, Maricopa County led the nation during the 1970s (4.42% vs. 1.10%), topped the nation over the 1980s (3.74% vs. 0.95%), outperformed the nation throughout the 1990s (3.64% vs. 1.23%), outpaced the nation in the 2000s (2.39% vs. 0.95%), recorded above the nation in the 2010s (1.38% vs. 0.74%), and exceeded the nation over 2020-2022 (1.41% vs. 0.31%).
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