Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Earnings Growth
Across Arizona Counties
Real* Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2020 and 2020
Real* Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Earnings Growth
Arizona:
2010-2020 = 15.46%
2020 = 4.75%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of real real estate and rental and leasing earnings growth across all of Arizona's 15 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Arizona Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the real real estate and rental and leasing earnings growth of Arizona's 15 counties over the latest available year (2020) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2020). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Real* Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2020 and 2020
Real* Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Earnings Growth
Arizona:
2010-2020 = 15.46%
2020 = 4.75%
This figure displays the 15 counties of Arizona as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual real real estate and rental and leasing earnings growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2020), and the horizontal axis representing the real real estate and rental and leasing earnings growth rate for the near-term (2020).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term real real estate and rental and leasing earnings growth exceeded the statewide average of 15.46%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 15.46% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual real real estate and rental and leasing earnings growth rate trailed the statewide average (15.46%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 5 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2020, while 6 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 4 counties whose most recent (2020) real real estate and rental and leasing earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (4.75%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 7 counties whose real real estate and rental and leasing earnings growth over 2020 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 15 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2020) and near-term (2020) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 15.46% over 2010-2020 and 4.75% over 2020:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real real estate and rental and leasing earnings growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (15.46%) and near-term (4.75%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real real estate and rental and leasing earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (15.46%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Arizona average (4.75%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real real estate and rental and leasing earnings growth rate fell below the statewide average (15.46%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (4.75%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real real estate and rental and leasing earnings growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (15.46%) and near-term (4.75%).
   
 
Summary of Arizona's 15 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(4.75%)
Above
(4.75%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(15.46%)
4
1
5
Below
(15.46%)
3
3
6
 
7
4
11
 
   
Leading Counties
2020 vs. 2010-2020 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
Arizona:
2010-2020 = 15.46%
2020 = 4.75%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Arizona county classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Arizona's average annual real real estate and rental and leasing earnings growth both long-term (2010-2020 = 15.46%) as well as near-term (2020 = 4.75%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real real estate and rental and leasing earnings growth rate over 2010-2020.
Of Arizona's 15 counties, just 1 (7%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2020 vs. 2010-2020 Averages
Slipping Counties
Arizona:
2010-2020 = 15.46%
2020 = 4.75%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 4 Arizona counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real real estate and rental and leasing earnings growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2020 = 15.46%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2020 = 4.75%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual real real estate and rental and leasing earnings growth rate over 2010-2020.
Observe that 4 (27%) of Arizona's 15 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2020 vs. 2010-2020 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
Arizona:
2010-2020 = 15.46%
2020 = 4.75%
This figure shows the distribution of the 3 Arizona counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real real estate and rental and leasing earnings growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2020 = 15.46%), while they outpaced Arizona's average near-term (2020 = 4.75%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual real real estate and rental and leasing earnings growth rate over 2010-2020.
Of Arizona's 15 counties, 20% (3) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2020 vs. 2010-2020 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
Arizona:
2010-2020 = 15.46%
2020 = 4.75%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 3 Arizona counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual real real estate and rental and leasing earnings growth both long-term (2010-2020 = 15.46%) as well as near-term (2020 = 4.75%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real real estate and rental and leasing earnings growth rate over 2010-2020.
20% of Arizona's counties, 3 of 15, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Arizona
Real* Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Earnings Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2020
 
2020
 
 
Leading Counties
 
4
17.04
 
5
4.86
5,842,018
Slipping Counties
 
5
15.96
 
9
1.53
17,097
 
2
18.25
 
7
3.12
30,295
 
1
20.16
 
8
1.98
120,256
 
3
17.80
 
12
-2.85
12,564
Gaining Counties
 
11
4.74
 
3
5.84
3,208
 
10
10.33
 
4
5.50
875,833
 
9
14.10
 
2
8.55
146,974
Lagging Counties
 
7
15.10
 
10
1.29
146,690
 
8
14.82
 
6
4.63
106,655
 
6
15.21
 
11
-0.76
108,184
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
13
-6.50
22,268
 
U
U
 
1
9.59
43,127
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
15.46
 
4.75
7,485,197
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
9.20
 
1.95
348,283,000
November 2021
REAP_PI_CA1600N_611100_LSGL
 
   
Copyright © 2022. Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Analysis Project (PNREAP). All Rights Reserved.

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